What is the Timing on Peak Oil Production?

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Amongst the many concerns that surround oil production one of the biggest is when the world will reach the point of peak oil production. Some researchers feel that this may be within the next year or two. But a recent paper written in Sweden says that it will more likely not be before 2018. What this means it that the oil production will continue to go along the way it has, though in some places it will increase, until it hits its peak and begins to slowly decline. Obviously it is the declining supply that people are worried about.

This researcher in Sweden felt that one of the things that helped to foretell the future of the oil fields is the few giant fields among them. These huge fields account for a tiny number of fields, only one percent, but together they produce sixty percent of the world's oil. He studied how the supplies are from those giant fields most of which have been giving oil for over fifty years. He further used other information to work out the peak oil production timing. First he added to his computations any recent discoveries that have been made of new oil sources plus offshore oil production, oil sands and heavy oil finds. He believes that these figures substantiate a slightly longer time period until the oil supplies hit the peak and begin their slow decline.Gas and Oil production


There are others who believe his facts may be right, but not based on the giant fields he talks about. These are researchers and scientists who still see oil reserves that are not being tapped and feel that the peak oil production date is still several years away. They claim that between the oil available in the Gulf of mexico, the South China Sea and West Africa there is at least another four hundred and fifty billion barrels to be found on top of current reserves. Those who are concerned about the amounts of oil we use take the more cautious approach warning that next year may very well see the oil supplies peak and that we should be looking to other sources of energy before we run out.