Double crises of coup and Covid could push half of Myanmar's population into poverty, UN warns

[aseel]

Almost half of Myanmar's population could be forced into poverty by the end of the year as the country teeters on the brink of economic collapse caused by the double shock of a bloody military coup and the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new United Nations report.

Rising food costs, significant losses of income and wages, the crumbling of basic services such as banking and health care, and an inadequate social safety net is likely to push millions of already vulnerable people below the poverty line of $1.10 a day -- with women and children among the hardest hit.
Analysis from the UN Development Program (UNDP), published Thursday, warned that if the security and economic situation does not stabilize soon, up to 25 million people -- 48% of Myanmar's population -- could be living in poverty by 2022.
That level of impoverishment has not been seen in Myanmar since 2005, when the country was an isolated, pariah nation ruled by a previous military regime, it said.
UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said it is clear "we are contending with a tragedy unfolding."
"We have fractured supply chains, (disrupted) movement of people and movement of goods and services, the banking system essentially suspended, remittances not being able to reach people, social safety payments that would have been available to poorer households not being paid out. These are just some of the immediate impacts," Steiner said. "The protracted political crisis will obviously worsen this."
Myanmar had made solid progress in reducing poverty, particularly since the start of a democratic transition from military rule in 2011 that prompted economic and political reforms.
Over the past 15 years, the country effectively halved its poverty rate from 48.2% in 2005 to 24.8% in 2017, according to the report. It was still considered one of the poorest countries in Asia, however, with an estimated third of the population subsisting on such a low or precarious income it was one economic shock away from being thrown back into poverty.
For many, that shock came in the form of the global coronavirus pandemic. Lockdowns and containment measures disrupted supply chains, so businesses -- especially in retail, manufacturing and exports, as well as smaller businesses, market sellers, hairdressers and tailors -- suffered. By December last year, more than 420,000 migrant workers had returned home.
By the end of the year, 83% of households in Myanmar reported their incomes had been slashed by about half due to the pandemic, the report found.
The second shock came in the morning of February 1, when armed forces commander in chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing seized power, overthrowing the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party and installing a military junta.

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